Winning Predictions?

Written by Brook Schaaf

Awin recently posted a blog on trends for 2023 and followed up with a podcast on some of the same topics, though framed differently. Here is my commentary on three salient issues.

First, the blog made a prediction: “Google’s FMTC partnership to spur single-use code adoption and improve coupon space standards.” The gist of this idea is that making generic codes more widely available will pressure merchants and affiliates to provide more value otherwise, such as with single-use codes. This may have already come true, as impact.com announced an expansion of its partnership with Google Pay, specifically with single-use promo codes, shortly thereafter. Moreover, Search Engine Roundtable observed Google adding clippable coupons directly to search results.

Second, per the blog: “Expect less industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity and more strategic partnerships as investor cash dries up.” Podcast guest Chris Johnson of intent.ly thought this a miss, stating, “if anything, it might speed up.” He cited momentum in the space and exchange rate opportunities, perhaps with more mergers “to help ride the storm a little bit more.” Guest Helen Southgate of Acceleration Partners was uncertain. I share her uncertainty, though my guess is that activity in our space will continue to be frothy because there is so much faith in the channel’s long-term future.

Finally, Chat-GPT (“Generative Predictive Transformer”): “At this point, it’s too early to tell exactly where its impact will be felt most acutely.” Southgate said, “I don’t know from an affiliate perspective . . . I’m still a little bit skeptical about how good it will be.” There was a shared consensus that it is unlikely to threaten affiliate jobs in the near future unlike, perhaps, content writers. In short, at least as far as affiliate goes, Chat-GPT has lived up to its first two words, generating various predictions . . . without anyone I’ve heard yet identifying how or if it will be truly transformative.